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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."