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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.